As for the population piece – even with the low birth rate in the US, the population will continue to grow for a while before it levels off and starts to decline. It’s like a train – even though brakes are applied, it takes a while before it actually stops. There are a few other factors to consider:
- Birth rates vary by groups in the US. For example, Hispanics tend to have a higher number of children than other groups and account for 50% of the US’ population growth.
- The population distribution has changed and people move where there are opportunities (usually for a job). This is evident in places such as Washington, DC, Las Vegas, Phoenix and other cities that have seen exponential growth in the last few decades. So it is more about people moving from one place to another rather than towns facing a decline because people are not having enough kids. It’s that their kids are *leaving* the town for opportunities elsewhere.
(I used to work in demographic research with a focus on population statistics in the US)

Related to the last point above, if people could create their own opporunities (e.g. self-employment, which is not usually an option taught to children in school), there may be less of a need for people to move. And those who create their own job opportunities may find less of a need for higher education beyond undergraduate school, which would lower some of the notorious student debt.

Just my two cents.

1. The continual printing of the needed US bail-out money, coupled with our increasing need to hike imports will tremendously devalue the dollar at some point and cause almost hyper-inflation. I remember home mortgages in 1980 costing 18% interest–for a home mortgage! That will seem like a very reasonable rate in our future. Inflation will drive up all prices.

2. The scandal of student loans will at some time be impossible to ignore and our college-age students will cease to borrow. There is NO guarantee that a college degree will produce a good job. In 2004 student loans totalled $40 billion; in 2007-08 they totalled $80 billion. Since at least 50% of students don’t graduate anyway (60% for African-Americans), why are we continually pushing “get-a-loan, go-to-college”? We’re simply burying our youth in debt! Professioinal degree like MD, JD (lawyer), etc are even worse. These grads can get good jobs, but thanks to massive loans at variable interest rates, they still can’t prosper. And the 2006 law says Bankruptcy cannot include Student Loans. Things have to change. This ‘recession’ will be the triggering event.

3. As world economies falter, we’ll see even more conflict world-wide. Several developed, Western countries are collapsing–Iceland, the PIIGS in Europe, and several of the smaller Asian countries; others are in varying degrees of conflict–Russia and Ukraine, for example. (PIIGS in the Euro zone are Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. These are the weaker countries whose currency is the Euro.) We’ve seen rioting in some of these areas already. As world conditions deteriorate, WAR may grow imminent and is certainly a very real possibility. And that’s not even considering the usual hot spots across the globe, like the Middle East, Congo, Zimbabwe, Balkans, Columbia, Indonesia, Burundi, Angola, Pakistan, Venezuela and the Phillippines!

4. There will be an increasing need for self-employment. Not only will a great number of people capitalize on the unfoldling opportunities to prosper, but they will come in unusual ways, ways that are outside the “40-hour week, good job” mindset.

Just a comment on your ‘American birth rate’ prediction. I think that decline is probable; not because of this recession, but just because that’s whats been happening for the past 40+ years in all developed countries around the world. For example, most all European countries have a birthrate that produces a level or negative population growth figure. That’s why there’s so much immigration; which has caused so many ethnic conflict problems, as in France and Germany. Also, Japan has such a low birthrate the country’s population has been below the replacement rate for 20+ years.

Again, who’s going to staff the low-level entry jobs in the economy? Immigrants from less-developed countries with high birth rates.

As the world populatioin study by the famous PhD-lady (can’t remember her name) done last year says, immigration is a major problem in Europe now, but will become an increasing concern in the US. Also, in countries whose governments act to control population growth, like India and China, more boy babies survive than girl babies. (Yes, parents abort or kill many girl babies.) So what does this mean for the future? It means that 2 of the biggest countries in the world will have a male-heavy population in the future. That suggests an aggressive attitude will predominate. Will that bring more wars? Wait and see.

Thanks for the opportunity to share my thoughts. –Ron

I find myself doing that now — and some places suggest it. Upromise offers more money towards my loans loans if I shop online rather than in stores, so I try to get things I don’t need right away online.

Anyway, nice predictions. I’m excited to for the backlash against 4000+ square footers.

I’m a fan of 529 plans the problem with your statement is that a responsible parent would not leave his child’s college money 100% invested in the market until the day the child starts college.

There is a risk that the market could experience a temporary dip (have you been watching the news lately?) immediately before the college tuition bill arrives. To guard against this parents should gradually move the child’s college savings to safer investments many years before the child starts college.

But, this means that parents must save more than they would if they could leave the money invested for 18 years straight. I see this problem with 529 calculations all the time.

Because I’m a passive investor I plan to put my child’s college savings in a 529 fund that automatically shifts its investments to safer assets over time.

1. Population stability – Even if US birth rate is lower than its death rate, the global population is increasing rapidly. As borders become less significant (assuming globalization continues), it will not matter so much whether individual countries have population stability. We need population stability for the world.

2. Real estate – I agree there are more houses than we need, and this will keep rents low and cause house prices to decline. There is a chance that lower prices will discourage new construction, and in a few years or so we’ll find ourselves back in balance.

3. College costs – I agree wholeheartedly that prices will come under control. So many college planning websites say that education costs rise faster than inflation. If that continues indefinitely, education will be all we produce/consume. Obviously this won’t happen. New suppliers will come in an provide affordable education in some form or another. This exact same thing is true for healthcare.

4. Shift away from bricks-and-mortar retail – I agree the pendulum is shifting away from bricks-and-mortar. It seems like there was a shift around the turn of the last century from stores to catalogs, starting with Sears. Then it shifted to big box stores. Now it’s going back to the “catalog” model. I agree we’re heading that direction, but eventually (maybe in decades) the pendulum will swing back to stores.