Comments on: Bay Area Real Estate: Wait 2 Months; Save $50,000

By: Janay

Janay — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:16:35 +0000

Forgot to mention on the Brentwood post, it’s mid-August when I’m making this post. Significant price drop since you began this post in mid-March.

By: Janay

Janay — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 18:08:37 +0000

My husband and I live in Contra Costa County and have been watching the prices fall dramatically in Brentwood/Oakley. Now we’re at the place of deciding whether to jump in and buy our first home (we have 2 young children, so we’re anxious for more space), or gamble on whether prices will come down much more to make it worth waiting. While waiting for prices to come down, the interest rate is also increasing.
Also, since homes have come down hundreds of thousands out there, a lot of homes are selling quickly, multiple offers, and above the listing price.

Any thoughts or advice on the Brentwood market?

Thank you!

By: ericabiz

ericabiz — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 21:33:14 +0000

Hi Johnny,

My advice is to wait a year and see when things settle out. Please subscribe to my blog to get an update whenever I post a new post — my next real estate post will be this month.

-Erica

By: Johnny

Johnny — Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:58:37 +0000

What about Union City, CA? Should I wait or try to buy the foreclosure now? Thanks!

By: ericabiz

ericabiz — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 01:58:49 +0000

@Bava – Livermore — I’d definitely wait. Houses there should drop more quickly (and more steeply) than most of the “inner” Bay Area. I would say your best bet is to wait for a foreclosure from someone who bought new construction a year or two ago. Be patient; prices are dropping so quickly right now that I’d say to stay out of the market for a year minimum.

@Girish – Excellent points! Thank you for commenting.

@Sharon C – Why buy when you can rent for half the price? Rent and be happy. Your kids will be in the same school district whether you rent or own. Renting isn’t that bad here — I’ve lived in the same place for 3 1/2 years with an excellent landlord. Prices will come down there too, but it will take time, since those aren’t “subprime” areas. I have a post slated for April regarding non-”subprime” areas. Please subscribe to my blog to be notified when I post it.

-Erica

By: Sharon C

Sharon C — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 16:23:32 +0000

How about houses in Los Altos or Mountain View with Los Altos schools? I am in the market for buying one. But each day they are going up. It is so frstrating.

By: Girish

Girish — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 23:37:47 +0000

Home prices will probably fall 10% from where they are by the end of this year and another 10% next year. Important point is to also see when the listed homes were last bought, if within 5 years you know these are subprime related. Finally one must understand that a house is an investment, if it is cheaper to rent than own despite the tax benefits then you are better off renting in a falling market.

By: Bava

Bava — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 04:43:16 +0000

What do you think about the livermore market? We were thinking of going with a builder there by the end of the year, are they going to be offering better deals as well.
-Thanks

By: Scott

Scott — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 18:55:29 +0000

@Erica,

There aren’t many ocean view houses on the market at all around. And the ones that are are also crap beyond the existence of the view. For once, God actually ain’t make more ocean view property. That said, I’m in the opposite situation as you: I own one, a very nice one that I bought in 2004 and recently remodeled into very very nice, and I’m considering an eventual move into SF. But probaly not for a few years given the state of the market.

Just below me is a bank-owned wreck of an ocean view property that looks great from the outside (seriously), but which is a $300K+ repair job once you peel back the lid (and you’d never know from the outside). It has just gone into escrow for the third time in its 1.5 years on the market. The last time this happened, the buyer backed out when he learned of the extensive wood-boring beetle damage. I’d say it would go for $1M in this market in sexed up move-in condition, but they’ll be lucky to get $600K in this market.

That said, the bank has done a positively awful job marketing this property. For example I suspect removing the divorced owner’s ex-wife’s wedding dress from the foyer closet might improve the staging a bit, but noooo… It comes with the house, leaving the new owner one step ahead in preparing for his starter marriage (sorry, I guess I’ve been reading burbed too much lately).

By: ericabiz

ericabiz — Mon, 17 Mar 2008 17:47:02 +0000

@Carl: I suspect you won’t have too long to wait, since prices in 95127 went from 34% off peak to 46% off peak in 2 months. Of course, if you want to buy in a nicer area, you may have longer to wait. As I said in a previous post, I am waiting for a 30-40% discount on an ocean view home. I suspect I will be renting for quite a while.

@rick: Palo Alto doesn’t have the foreclosure problem that many areas of San Jose do. That’s not to say that prices won’t come down, but they will take longer and may not fall as far. Be patient. You’ll probably need to wait until 2010 or so to find a good deal in Palo Alto, but that’s not horribly far off.

@Scott: How many others are on the market? Foreclosures haven’t hit the $1M+ mansions yet, but they aren’t selling very fast, either. One that I watch in Pacifica went “pending” and then came back on the market… I’m guessing the buyer’s financing fell through. Sellers of nice ocean-view houses are reluctant to lower prices. As with Palo Alto, your best bet is patience. Late 2010 will be a good time to buy ocean view as well. I am tracking Pacifica ocean view properties and should have more updates as things progress there. Right now, not much is really going on at all. Nothing is selling and sellers aren’t lowering their prices…most places have been on the market for 6+ months. Booooring.