But let me say that I am truely afraid of the consequences of a world wide real-estate correction. The run on Northern Bank on England is the type of news headlines that have not reached print in over 70 years!!!!
This type of news is bad for everyone who has to work.

What I do know is that our neighbor is an Asian law student, and his parents bought his townhome for $610,000 with a $500 HOA. The going rate for a renovated rental 2/2 in the complex is $2100. Personally I think that’s a crazy, but to each is own, we’ll see how the next 2 years play out.

ps I’m Asian as well and I won’t go into the cultural aspects of homeownership but suffice to say, it plays along with “showing off” and proving that you “made it” (even if you haven’t).

A. My “self survey” of the locals I mentioned prove to me that a very large portion of these immigrants are indeed paying these monthly payments. In fact I believe that a significant number of them are putting much more than the traditional 20% down on a loan. All I have to do is look at the kids walking out the door of the local high school to see that at least one third of them are Asian, East Indian, etc. This was not the case 10 yrs. ago; & t is a trend that is increasing rapidly. I rented a home out in Pleasanton for the last 20 yrs. The first 15 yrs. all the tenants were USA born. The last five yrs. they were all Asian, East Indian(non USA born). All I have to do is look at my new neighbors from the last 5-10 yrs. Approx. 75% Asian & non USA born. I don’t care if they are from Mars, except that my point is that the Asians epecially are comming with the cash & buying at these high prices! I know because I go to the open houses & two weeks later another Asian family is moving in. They are purchasing close to or at full price. I see the property sales reports in the local paper; so I know that they aren’t getting any bargains. They are also buying the newer homes as well, & the new ones are approx. 850K to 2000K. I do see a lot of Asian Grandparents now, & I believe that they ae combining their life savings from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Bombay, etc. with the current income of the kids to accomplish this economic feat. The Hispanics in the areas surveyed seem to be doing the combining income thing as well; but they “usually” purchase in the lower income areas(Fruitvale-Oakland, etc.), where the prices have started to fall a little bit, but even here the prices are still crazy; like 400K to 500K for an 70 yr. old 2bdrm in East Oakland, Ukiah, etc. So, even those immigrants are still putting upward pressure on the overall market.

B. I’ve been looking at the Bay Area market since 1978. I don’t see any of my newer neighbors/businesses moving out at all, & professional type businesses are still comming in, & retail property is still being built.

C. If you haven’t done so, may I respectfully suggest that you drive north on Tassahara Rd. from 580 in Dublin to the Windemere project in San Ramone & then reply back with your interpretation of current market forces. Unless I am wrong, you will be amazed at the quantity of residential growth and the prices people are paying. The construction has not abated.

A) Immigration. Unless the influx of Asian and Hispanic immigrants are coming in with considerable amount of saved capital, please explain how they’re going to afford to take out a jumbo loan over $417,000 at 8% interest. A loan of that amount alone (without taxes or HOA) will require a montly payment of $3,060. How many immigrants do you know can afford a monthly payment of that amount? Also, assuming 20% down, that only covers a home of $521,250. So influx is irrelevant unless the “influx” can pay these amounts, which wasn’t addressed at all.

B) You never stated how long have you been looking at the market (5, 10, 40??). We haven’t had a real painful recession in what?? 15 years. There’s an entire generation of folks out there that haven’t experienced it and we don’t know how they will react. But again, basic number crunching would indicate that if the median house price is (as you say) over 800k, how many folks/businesses can seriously stay at these price points?