Comments on: Tick…tick… http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/ Erica Douglass, "temporarily retired" after selling a successful business at age 26, writes thought-provoking blog entries challenging you to change your life and daring you to become more successful. Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:41:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: Emmanuel http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-133557 Emmanuel Thu, 06 Nov 2008 01:54:57 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-133557 In the article a huge thank you all for the cause, a lot of people are using In the article a huge thank you all for the cause, a lot of people are using

]]> By: Dan http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-122228 Dan Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:32:33 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-122228 To clarify what I said above, houses never go up in value. The highest value a house can ever have is when it is first built. The house never produces anything more than it did on day one: shelter. The house doesn't grow sq. ft. The house doesn't do anything but deteriorate. Houses, like all physical commodities, deteriorates and depreciate with age. Eventually all houses have negative value because they become unlivable and it costs money to tear them down and reclaim the land they are on. The land value + negative house value may settle on a positive dollar amount, but it will still be less than the value of land. One more thing to realize, is in costal regions, especially Florida, land value will go to zero in 10 to 30 years. This is because the land will cease to exist when the sea level rises. Boca Raton is only 25 feet above sea level. When the Greenland ice sheet melts -- and it will -- Boca is toast. So is everything from the keys to West Palm Beach. When the Antarctic ice sheets melt, as they have started to already, that will raise the sea levels another 20 feet. As soon as people realize that the land can't be handed down to their grandchildren, the price of land will plummet. Everyone will want to cash out. The government won't -- and can't -- bail out all the land owners when the land is flooded. So coastal land is a very bad investment. We are already past the point of no return. We couldn't save coastal cities even if we tried. To clarify what I said above, houses never go up in value. The highest value a house can ever have is when it is first built. The house never produces anything more than it did on day one: shelter. The house doesn’t grow sq. ft. The house doesn’t do anything but deteriorate.

Houses, like all physical commodities, deteriorates and depreciate with age. Eventually all houses have negative value because they become unlivable and it costs money to tear them down and reclaim the land they are on.

The land value + negative house value may settle on a positive dollar amount, but it will still be less than the value of land.

One more thing to realize, is in costal regions, especially Florida, land value will go to zero in 10 to 30 years. This is because the land will cease to exist when the sea level rises.

Boca Raton is only 25 feet above sea level. When the Greenland ice sheet melts — and it will — Boca is toast. So is everything from the keys to West Palm Beach.

When the Antarctic ice sheets melt, as they have started to already, that will raise the sea levels another 20 feet.

As soon as people realize that the land can’t be handed down to their grandchildren, the price of land will plummet. Everyone will want to cash out. The government won’t — and can’t — bail out all the land owners when the land is flooded.

So coastal land is a very bad investment. We are already past the point of no return. We couldn’t save coastal cities even if we tried.

]]> By: Dan http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-122227 Dan Thu, 19 Jun 2008 20:23:33 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-122227 Quote: <i>Actually, houses in our neighborhood have actually gone up in value.</i> Houses never go up in <i>value</i>. They only go up in <i>price</i>. Price and value are not the same thing. If you believe that they are, then I've got some belly button lint to sell you. It's valued at $449,000. House prices will continue to plummet until they are 3x the median income. Actually, they will drop even beyond that because no market ever corrects without overcorrecting. When the bottom hits, you'll get $80/sq.ft. Don't worry about missing the bottom, because it will flatline for years. Japan's real estate market's bottom lasted 14 years! Quote: Actually, houses in our neighborhood have actually gone up in value.

Houses never go up in value. They only go up in price. Price and value are not the same thing. If you believe that they are, then I’ve got some belly button lint to sell you. It’s valued at $449,000.

House prices will continue to plummet until they are 3x the median income. Actually, they will drop even beyond that because no market ever corrects without overcorrecting. When the bottom hits, you’ll get $80/sq.ft.

Don’t worry about missing the bottom, because it will flatline for years. Japan’s real estate market’s bottom lasted 14 years!

]]> By: Robert Scoble http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-103056 Robert Scoble Sun, 19 Aug 2007 07:55:06 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-103056 Actually, houses in our neighborhood have actually gone up in value. A house just sold on our street to demonstrate that. Actually, houses in our neighborhood have actually gone up in value. A house just sold on our street to demonstrate that.

]]> By: Robert Royce http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-102964 Robert Royce Sat, 18 Aug 2007 14:08:07 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-102964 I used to be an MAI real estate appraiser. In 1987 I bought at the top of the market. In 1989 I watched the housing and commercial real estate crash and made lots of money in fees, but lost $200,000 in real estate I bought at the top. I was too stunned to buy at the bottom of the market when I could have. Not this time! I saved my money, paid off my mortgage and now I'm ready to buy when there's blood in the streets. I'm no longer a real estate appraiser - but I remember everything. I'm going to make a bundle on the uptick. I have cash and assets! And I'm going to buy and buy. I am enjoying myself immensely watching the market crash since last Thursday and reading the lies put out by NAR and mortgage lenders and stock market people. It's over ... and I'll be there to rake through the pieces. See you in 2014. I'll be 74. I used to be an MAI real estate appraiser. In 1987 I bought at the top of the market. In 1989 I watched the housing and commercial real estate crash and made lots of money in fees, but lost $200,000 in real estate I bought at the top. I was too stunned to buy at the bottom of the market when I could have. Not this time! I saved my money, paid off my mortgage and now I’m ready to buy when there’s blood in the streets. I’m no longer a real estate appraiser - but I remember everything. I’m going to make a bundle on the uptick. I have cash and assets! And I’m going to buy and buy.

I am enjoying myself immensely watching the market crash since last Thursday and reading the lies put out by NAR and mortgage lenders and stock market people. It’s over … and I’ll be there to rake through the pieces. See you in 2014. I’ll be 74.

]]> By: Igor http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-39814 Igor Sun, 15 Oct 2006 11:34:57 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-39814 I see the same kind of scenario in France where I live : people fears high prices to buy so they don't go for a better living even if they can. True non-sense ! You must enter the market. After that, if you sell a house to buy another one (a majority of us do that), prices can be high or low, it doesn't make much difference... I see the same kind of scenario in France where I live :

people fears high prices to buy so they don’t go for a better living even if they can. True non-sense !

You must enter the market. After that, if you sell a house to buy another one (a majority of us do that), prices can be high or low, it doesn’t make much difference…

]]> By: SlashChick http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-37382 SlashChick Sat, 09 Sep 2006 23:39:55 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-37382 Mike S - I wasn't wrong. Just a year too soon. :) Come back in 2010 and we'll review scorecards then. Mike S - I wasn’t wrong. Just a year too soon. :)

Come back in 2010 and we’ll review scorecards then.

]]> By: Mike S http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-37379 Mike S Sat, 09 Sep 2006 23:34:03 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-37379 Hmm, your real estate expertise sure played out well on Scobleizer. Not! http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/06/26/buy-our-house/#comment-44715 Hmm, your real estate expertise sure played out well on Scobleizer.

Not!

http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/06/26/buy-our-house/#comment-44715

]]> By: skip http://www.erica.biz/2006/ticktick/#comment-35734 skip Sat, 19 Aug 2006 04:27:53 +0000 http://www.slashchick.com/?p=178#comment-35734 I think the timeline should be shortened. In the 80's/90's 80/20 loans were the norm. If you didn't have 20% to put down on a loan, you most likely were not going to get that house. There was no such thing as interest only loans which compromise the majority of loans in the northern CA region. I think the crash will be swift and fast. I think the timeline should be shortened. In the 80’s/90’s 80/20 loans were the norm. If you didn’t have 20% to put down on a loan, you most likely were not going to get that house. There was no such thing as interest only loans which compromise the majority of loans in the northern CA region. I think the crash will be swift and fast.

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